The global economic downturn should not have a long-term negative effect on cryptocurrency prices, even if it is influencing crypto in the short term.
It’s been a tough year for risk assets across the board, and it’s fair to blame the macroeconomic situation. A combination of factors has ignited a surge of inflation in developed economies and forced central bankers to react.
As a consequence, several events — including inflation, payrolls, interest rate announcements, and speeches from monetary authorities (especially in the United States) — have had a relevant impact over the risk asset prices globally. As bad news prevailed, the turmoil spread across different asset classes and regions. By mid-September, all the main stock indexes from developed countries recorded double-digit negative returns (year to date, currency adjusted).
In these turbulent waters, crypto assets were severely harmed. The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI), which represents the performance of the most relevant crypto assets, had dropped 52.3% (year to date) by Sept. 12. During this crisis, crypto also exhibited an unprecedented high correlation with traditionally risky assets, notably stock in tech companies, which comprised one of the most heavily damaged sectors. Under these circumstances, it is worth questioning whether or not the crypto winter is a result of a macro scenario. Let’s see what the data can tell us.
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